东非地区的气候变化和武装冲突的当地脆弱性来源
Federica Cappelli1, Valeria Costantini2, Mariagrazia D'Angeli2
1Department of Economics and Management, University of Ferrara, via Voltapaletto, 11 - 44121, Ferrara, Italy.
Journal of environmental management
|March 1, 2024
概括
气候变化作为武装冲突的威胁乘数,但只有当与现有的社会脆弱性相结合时. 解决资源不平等和适应能力的问题可以减少冲突风险和气候影响.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 冲突研究 冲突研究
- 社会经济学 社会经济学
背景情况:
- 社会经济和制度因素影响冲突.
- 气候变化越来越被认为是冲突的间接驱动因素.
- 对气候变化和冲突的脆弱性是理解局部冲突风险的关键.
研究的目的:
- 调查脆弱性在东非气候冲突关系中的作用.
- 确定局部特定的脆弱因素,加剧冲突风险.
- 了解气候变化如何与预先存在的脆弱性相互作用,以影响武装冲突.
主要方法:
- 空间自回归模型 (SAR) 应用于从1997年至2016年的地理引用数据 (25x25公里分辨率).
- 分析重点集中在东非,以确定局部脆弱因素.
- 检查气候暴露,脆弱性和冲突发生率之间的相互作用.
主要成果:
- 气候变化并没有直接增加冲突风险;它扩大了风险的存在之前存在的脆弱性.
- 资源获取和社会经济因素是气候冲突联系的关键驱动因素,特别是在城市环境中.
- 不平等的权力分配,导致资源分配不公平,显著增加了脆弱性和冲突风险.
结论:
- 缓解冲突风险和气候变化影响需要解决潜在的脆弱性因素.
- 提高适应能力和确保资源的公平分配对于社会性至关重要.
- 针对社会经济和资源获取漏洞的目标可以打破气候冲突联系.
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