根据乘客的动态时间和典型空间场景评估公共汽车中的感染风险:COVID-19的案例研究
Yinshuai Feng1, Xiaoyu Luo1, Jianjian Wei2
1College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; International Research Center for Green Building and Low-Carbon City, International Campus, Zhejiang University, Haining, China.
The Science of the total environment
|March 1, 2024
概括
时间和空间因素显著改变了公共汽车上的疾病传播风险. 忽视这些动态可能会导致不准确的风险评估,突出需要实时监测和预防策略.
科学领域:
- 流行病学和公共卫生.
- 交通运输安全 运输安全
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
背景情况:
- 城市公共交通,像传统的公共汽车一样,给乘客带来了交叉感染的风险.
- 评估这些风险需要考虑乘客的动态存在和移动模式.
研究的目的:
- 根据乘客的空间和时间分布,评估公共汽车上的疾病传播风险差异.
- 通过同步与异步情景对感染者和易受感染者的风险评估进行比较.
主要方法:
- 公共汽车环境的现场测量.
- 一种风险评估方法,整合了短距离和房间范围的传输效应.
- 分析了四个空间和六个时间场景,包括一个同步存在的对照案例.
主要成果:
- 感染者和易受感染者之间的时间异步显著影响疾病传播率.
- 对照病例 (同步存在) 导致实际风险的高估或低估 (范围为+99.6%至-69.9%).
- 通风影响房间规模的风险,而短期风险取决于个体的时间重叠.
结论:
- 实际评估疾病传播 (总繁殖数,R) 需要考虑时间和空间异步.
- 忽视这些因素会导致不准确的风险评估,需要积极预防和实时监测公共交通安全风险.
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