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在Ebinur湖盆地使用合的GMOP-PLUS模型进行生态系统服务估值和多场景模拟
Hua Tang1, Abudureheman Halike2,3,4, Kaixuan Yao1
1College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830017, China.
Scientific reports
|March 1, 2024
概括
埃比努尔湖流域的土地利用变化从1990年到2020年增加了生态系统服务价值 (ESV). 未来的情景预测持续增加,特别是在生态保护下,突出了干旱地区的土地利用规划的重要性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 干旱地区研究 干旱地区研究
背景情况:
- 埃比努尔湖盆地是一个生态敏感的干旱地区,在平衡社会经济发展与环境可持续性方面面临着挑战.
- 了解土地利用和土地覆盖 (LULC) 动态对于评估和预测这些地区的生态系统服务价值 (ESV) 至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估1990年至2020年的埃比努尔湖盆地LULC历史变化和ESV.
- 预测到2035年,在四个不同的发展场景 (BAU,RED,ELP,EEB) 下,未来的ESV变化.
- 为干旱的内陆河流域的土地利用战略和可持续发展提供科学支持.
主要方法:
- 分析了1990年,2000年,2010年和2020年的LULC数据.
- 灰色多目标优化模型与补丁生成土地利用模拟 (Patch-DREAM) 模型的结合用于未来的预测.
- 基于LULC变化的生态系统服务价值 (ESV) 的评估.
主要成果:
- 从1990年到2020年,草原和未使用的土地主导了盆地;未使用的土地减少,而耕地增加.
- 在1990年至2020年期间,ESV总额从186.2亿元大幅增加到672.8亿元,其中监管和支持服务是主要贡献者.
- 四个未来情景 (2035) 都预计耕地增加,未使用土地减少. 生态保护 (ELP) 场景显示ESV最高,而快速经济发展 (RED) 则导致下降.
结论:
- 埃比努尔湖流域的土地利用变化对ESV总体产生了积极影响,主要是由于土地转移到更多的耕地.
- 未来的土地使用场景表明对ESV的影响各不相同,生态保护战略产生最有利的结果.
- 优化土地使用分配对于确保干旱内陆河流域的可持续社会经济和生态发展至关重要.
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