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相关概念视频

Global Climate Change01:50

Global Climate Change

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Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
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The fossil record documents only a small fraction of all organisms that have ever inhabited Earth. Fossilization is a rare process, and most organisms never become fossils. Moreover, the fossil record only exhibits fossils that have been discovered. Nevertheless, sedimentary rock fossils of long-lived, abundant, hard-bodied organisms dominate the fossil record. These fossils offer valuable information, such as an organism's physical form, behavior, and age. Studying the fossil record helps...
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Scientists record evolutionary history by analyzing fossil, morphological, and genetic data. The fossil record documents the history of life on Earth and provides evidence for evolution. However, both fossil and living organisms offer evidence that outlines Earth’s evolutionary history.
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相关实验视频

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Data Processing Methods for 3D Seismic Imaging of Subsurface Volcanoes: Applications to the Tarim Flood Basalt
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从古地震记录进行地震预测.

Ting Wang1, Jonathan D Griffin2, Marco Brenna3

  • 1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Otago, Dunedin, 9016, New Zealand. ting.wang@otago.ac.nz.

Nature communications
|March 2, 2024
PubMed
概括

预测大地震需要比较统计模型. 贝叶斯模型平均化通过计算数据不确定性来改善预测,提供更好的地震危险评估.

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Kinematic History of a Salient-recess Junction Explored through a Combined Approach of Field Data and Analog Sandbox Modeling
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科学领域:

  • 地质物理学 地质物理学
  • 地震学 地震学
  • 地震科学 地震科学 地震科学

背景情况:

  • 准确预测大型地震对于地震危险评估至关重要.
  • 使用古地震数据的统计模型是地震复发间隔分析的关键工具.
  • 现有的方法经常与测量错误和古地震记录固有的模型不确定性作斗争.

研究的目的:

  • 为了比较5种用于预测大地震的统计模型.
  • 实施贝叶斯模型-平均时间依赖,概率的地震预测.
  • 评估模型平均值对具有显著不确定性的古地震数据的好处.

主要方法:

  • 汇编和分析来自全球93个活跃断层段的古地震数据.
  • 五种不同的地震复发统计模型的比较.
  • 贝叶斯模型平均的应用,以整合模型预测,并考虑测量错误.

主要成果:

  • 该研究产生了对93个断层段的未来50年的时间依赖,概率的地震断裂预测.
  • 对于65个故障段,一个单一的最佳模型被青,而28个细分段受益于模型平均方法.
  • 预测包括每段下一次大地震的断裂概率和预测发生时间.

结论:

  • 没有单一的统计模型可以普遍解释大地震的复发情况.
  • 一种集体预测方法,比如贝叶斯模型平均,对于古地震数据是有利的,特别是在有限的数据和大测量误差的情况下.
  • 开发的方法论通过提供更强大的地震预测来增强地震危险评估.