印度的温度预测和热浪归因场景:系统性审查
Khaiwal Ravindra1, Sanjeev Bhardwaj2, Chhotu Ram2
1Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research (PGIMER), Chandigarh, 160012, India.
Heliyon
|March 4, 2024
概括
全球气温正在上升,印度热浪的频率和强度正在增加. 迫切需要采取适应战略,以减轻严重的健康和社会经济影响,特别是在脆弱的地区.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 由人为排放驱动的全球气温上升带来了重大风险.
- 印度因日益频繁和强烈的热浪而面临严重的社会经济和健康后果.
- 在1992年至2015年期间,印度发生了超过24000起与热浪有关的死亡事件.
研究的目的:
- 系统地检查全球气温上升对印度热浪的预测影响.
- 为印度的热浪提供缓解和适应策略的见解.
- 确定最容易受到热浪风险的区域.
主要方法:
- 利用气候模型和统计方法来描述和预测极端的热量.
- 评估了过去,现在和未来的热浪趋势预测.
- 审查了使用合模型相互比较项目 (CMIP5) 和代表性度途径 (RCP) 的研究,重点是RCP8.5.5.
主要成果:
- 未来的预测表明温度将上升±1.2°C至±3.5°C,并可能在2050年降低.
- 预计热浪将变得更频繁,更强烈,持续时间更长.
- 确定了印度的关键漏洞和敏感区域.
结论:
- 迫切需要适应性战略来应对印度日益升级的热浪威胁.
- 调查结果为决策者在规划和制定政策方面提供了可行的预测.
- 强调考虑未来气候和温度预测对于有效的热浪管理的重要性.
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