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对不同预测场景的航班,延误和成本的近似计算:一个后置计算练习
I Galarraga1,2,3, L M Abadie2, T Standfuss4
1Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Sede Building 1, 1st Floor Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, 48940, Leioa, Spain.
准确的空中交通预测对于运营效率至关重要. 这项研究表明,由于资源分配效率低下,预测错误显著增加了空中交通管理成本.
科学领域:
- 空中交通管理是指空中交通管理.
- 航空经济学航空经济学
背景情况:
- 空中导航服务提供商 (ANSP) 作为受监管的自然断运作.
- 在空中交通管理中,有效的资源规划在很大程度上取决于准确的飞行流量预测.
- 预测精度是影响运营效率和成本效益的关键因素.
研究的目的:
- 量化预测错误对空中交通管理绩效的影响.
- 估计由于航班预测不准确而造成的延误的财务成本.
- 分析2015-2020年期间预测和实际飞行数据之间的差异.
主要方法:
- 使用逆算技术来评估预测错误的影响.
- 分析了11个空域的7年数据.
- 将EUROCONTROL的STATFOR预测与实际飞行数据进行比较,以评估延误成本.
主要成果:
- 预测错误对空中交通管理绩效产生重大不利影响.
- 不准确的预测导致资源分配效率低下,运营成本增加.
- 预测准确度的微小改进可以大大降低利益相关者的成本.
结论:
- 提高空中交通预测质量对于提高运营效率至关重要.
- 减少预测错误直接转化为航空导航服务提供商和其他利益相关者的成本降低.
- 该研究强调了预测精度在航空业的经济影响.
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