过去,现在和未来的捕食者-猎物互动在一个变暖的世界:使用物种分布建模预测ectotherm-endotherm的重叠
Jessica L Hill1, Matthew Grisnik2,3, Ryan J Hanscom1,4
1Department of Biology San Diego State University San Diego California USA.
Ecology and evolution
|March 4, 2024
概括
气候变化影响了捕食者与猎物的相互作用. 草原蛇可能会失去息地,而袋鼠会获得,由于不同的温度调节,它们的反应不匹配.
科学领域:
- 生态学和气候变化研究研究.
- 跨物种相互作用和生理反应.
- 生物地理和生态利基建模.
背景情况:
- 由于生理反应不同,气候变化对物种相互作用构成风险,特别是在ectotherms和endotherms之间.
- 了解温度的变化如何影响物种的和息地至关重要,特别是对于具有多样化温度调节的捕食者-猎物系统.
- 很少有研究研究了温度对外热-内热捕食者-猎物对的差异性影响.
研究的目的:
- 在过去和未来的气候条件下,模拟和比较草原蛇 (一个外热体) 和奥德的袋鼠 (一个内热体) 的生态和生物地理.
- 评估利基重叠和气候变化对这种捕食者-猎物对合适息地的潜在影响.
- 为了提供一个生物地理的例子,互动的ectotherm-endotherm物种之间的不匹配的反应.
主要方法:
- 生态利基模型被用来分析物种分布.
- 模拟了过去的气候条件 (最后的冰川最大期和Holocene中期) 和未来的气候变化场景 (RCPs 2.6,4.5,8.5).
- 计算了利基重叠指标 (D和I),并量化了适合息地的变化.
主要成果:
- 在草原蛇和奥尔德的袋鼠鼠之间观察到高重叠 (D=0.863,I=0.979).
- 这两种物种在最后的冰川最大和中期Holocene期间表现出类似的古生态分布.
- 未来的气候场景预测,蛇的息地减少 (-1.82%至-7.34%) 和袋鼠的息地增加 (9.8%至11.71%).
- 在这两种物种中都发现了稳定的北方息地和减少的南方息地的趋势.
结论:
- 相互作用的外热-内热物种可能会对气候变化表现出不匹配的反应,影响它们各自的适合息地.
- 保护和监测工作应优先考虑北度,并解决南部范围部分适用性降低的问题.
- 这项研究为进一步研究气候变化下的交互性外热-内热系统的生物地理提供了基础.
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