由于感染而导致捕获可用性的变化,可能会导致人口级传染病参数的可检测偏差
Iris A Holmes1,2, Andrew M Durso3, Christopher R Myers4
1Department of Microbiology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States.
PeerJ
|March 4, 2024
概括
寄生虫感染可以改变宿主行为,影响捕获率和偏见进化研究. 标记回收方法可以检测这些偏差,改善我们对宿主-寄生虫动态的理解.
科学领域:
- 疾病生态学 疾病生态学
- 进化生物学 进化生物学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 寄生虫诱导的行为变化可能会偏向宿主捕获概率,使选择强度的估计变得复杂.
- 对选择的准确估计对于预测宿主-寄生虫相互作用结果至关重要.
- 标准采样技术可能无法考虑感染驱动的捕获偏差.
研究的目的:
- 调查感染驱动的宿主捕获率的变化如何影响关键生态和进化指标的估计.
- 确定选择估计中的偏差的原因和方向.
- 评估标记回收方法在检测这些偏差方面的实用性.
主要方法:
- 利用基于个体的模拟来模拟宿主-寄生虫相互作用.
- 由于感染,捕获率的模拟变化.
- 分析了这些变化对生殖成功,感染风险和等位基因频率变化估计的影响.
主要成果:
- 感染驱动的捕获率变化可以显著改变生殖成功和相对感染风险的估计.
- 观察到选择估计中的偏差,受捕获概率变化的方向和大小的影响.
- 模拟揭示了这些偏差如何影响推断的进化轨迹,包括等位基频率变化.
结论:
- 标记重新捕获方法是有效的检测和纠正感染驱动的捕获偏差在宿主群体.
- 短期标记回收研究可以提供关于检测偏差的有价值数据,而无需额外的负担.
- 考虑到捕获偏差对于准确的宿主寄生虫系统的流行病学和进化预测至关重要.
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