在葡萄牙 (2020-2080年) 预测的痴呆症患病率
Sara Alves1,2, Natália Duarte1,2, Barbara Gomes3
1Santa Casa da Misericórdia de Riba D'Ave/CIDIFAD - Centro de Investigação, Diagnóstico, Formação e Acompanhamento das Demências, Braga, Portugal.
Journal of geriatric psychiatry and neurology
|March 4, 2024
概括
葡萄牙的痴呆症患病率预计到2080年将增加一倍以上,对老年人产生重大影响. 这一预测有助于公共卫生规划,以应对葡萄牙日益增长的痴呆症挑战.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 痴呆症是一个重大的全球公共卫生挑战.
- 葡萄牙痴呆症的具体影响和未来患病率尚不清楚.
- 了解未来的趋势对于有效的公共卫生战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测葡萄牙到2080年痴呆症的流行情况.
- 估计葡萄牙65岁及以上人口中痴呆病例的数量.
- 预测痴呆症病例的人口变化,特别是关于最年长的年龄组.
主要方法:
- 利用Gonçalves-Pereira等人 (2021) 方法进行痴呆病例估计.
- 应用了Gonçalves-Pereira研究中的特定年龄性别流行率.
- 在低,中,高增长情景下,将这些率与葡萄牙人口预测 (2020-2080) 整合起来.
- 采用了10/66痴呆症研究小组 (10/66DRG) 和精神疾病诊断和统计手册IV (DSM-IV) 的标准.
主要成果:
- 预计到2080年,痴呆症患病率将增加两倍以上.
- 到2080年,预计的患病率为2.1%-5.0% (10/66 DRG) 和0.8%-2.0% (DSM-IV).
- 到2080年,80岁及以上的个人预计将占所有痴呆病例的75.0%,比2020年的59.0%增加.
- 预计痴呆症会不成比例地影响老年人群中的女性.
结论:
- 该研究强调葡萄牙痴呆症患病率大幅增加,需要积极的公共卫生干预措施.
- 国家级痴呆症估计对于明智的政策制定和资源分配至关重要.
- 需要通过国家数据支持的全面全球反应,以应对不断升级的痴呆症负担.
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