预测世界各类开花植物的灭绝风险,以支持它们的保护
Steven P Bachman1, Matilda J M Brown1, Tarciso C C Leão1
1Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, TW9 3AE, UK.
The New phytologist
|March 4, 2024
概括
超过70%的血管植物缺乏保护状态. 这项研究预测了所有木种的灭绝风险,估计有45.1%可能受到威胁,有助于保护工作.
科学领域:
- 植物学 植物学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 超过70%的血管植物物种缺乏保护状况评估.
- 有关全球物种灭绝风险存在重大知识差距.
- 胞体,包括大约33万个物种,代表了一个庞大而未被充分研究的类.
研究的目的:
- 为了产生第一个全面的灭绝风险预测,所有树苗.
- 为了解决血管植物保护状况评估中的缺陷.
- 提供数据来优先考虑保护物种和指导实地工作.
主要方法:
- 利用"血管植物世界检查清单"获取全面的物种数据.
- 使用贝叶斯增量回归树 (BART) 来预测灭绝风险.
- 包括预测因素,如范围大小,人类足迹,气候和进化历史.
- 应用了一种新的方法来估计物种级预测中的不确定性.
主要成果:
- 估计有45.1%的树苗种类可能面临灭绝的威胁.
- 为危物种提供了44.5%的下限和45.7%的上限.
- 生成的物种级预测与相关的不确定性估计.
结论:
- 这些预测作为一个有价值的工具来优先考虑在红色名单评估中的物种.
- 有助于对非危物种进行更快的评估,并可能将其归类为最不关心的物种.
- 提供系统的保护计划,现场工作和全球植物保护目标的信息.
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