医生对重症监护患者1年预后的看法与现实的预后相比较
Laura Pietiläinen1, Johanna Hästbacka2, Stepani Bendel1
1University of Eastern Finland and Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Kuopio University Hospital, Kuopio, Finland.
Acta anaesthesiologica Scandinavica
|March 4, 2024
概括
芬兰麻醉科医生经常不准确地估计了重症监护室 (ICU) 患者的1年生存期. 大多数医生低估了生存概率,这表明需要改善预后教育和重症监护工具.
科学领域:
- 关键护理医学 关键护理医学
- 医学教育 医学教育
- 健康 结果 研究 研究 结果
背景情况:
- 医生对重症患者预后的看法在很大程度上是未知的.
- 准确的预后评估对于有效的重症监护管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查芬兰麻醉师对重症监护室 (ICU) 患者1年生存概率估计的准确性.
- 将医生的估计与基于注册数据的现实预测进行比较.
主要方法:
- 一项调查通过电子邮件发送给芬兰麻醉师,介绍了12个虚构的ICU患者病例.
- 受访者估计了每个病例的1年生存概率.
- 估计与注册表数据进行了比较,分类差异为<10,10-20,或>20个百分点.
主要成果:
- 在2520个预测中,43.0%的预测比现实预测差10个百分点.
- 很大一部分 (31.4%) 的差异超过20个百分点.
- 所有估计的中位误差为 -8.8,表明典型的低估了9个百分点的生存概率.
结论:
- 芬兰麻醉师经常误估了长期ICU患者的预后,主要低估了生存率.
- 显然需要加强医疗教育,以提高重症监护患者的预后.
- 建议开发和实施改进的预后预测工具.
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