挪威七个城市空气温度与死亡率之间的短期关联:时间序列分析
Liliana Vázquez Fernández1,2, Alfonso Diz-Lois Palomares1,3, Ana M Vicedo Cabrera4,5
1Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Norway.
Scandinavian journal of public health
|March 4, 2024
概括
寒冷的温度在挪威显著增加死亡率,特别是来自心血管和呼吸道疾病. 公共卫生政策必须解决中度感冒的影响,以减轻这些风险.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 在挪威,环境温度对死亡率的影响仍未得到量化.
- 之前的研究没有评估挪威城市空气温度和死亡率之间的关联.
研究的目的:
- 在挪威七个城市量化非最佳环境温度的死亡负担.
- 评估热和冷对非意外,心血管和呼吸道疾病死亡率的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用1996-2018年历史的每日数据集进行城市特定分析.
- 采用分布式滞后非线性模型,采用14天滞后和多变量元回归.
- 计算了因热和寒而导致的死亡人数,并使用第1个和第99个百分位数定义了最佳温度截止值.
主要成果:
- 非最佳温度与5.3%的非意外死亡,11.8%的心血管死亡和5.9%的呼吸道死亡有关.
- 在所有健康结果中,寒冷的温度占死亡负担的大部分.
- 暴露于热量对呼吸道死亡率有更明显的影响.
结论:
- 温和低温对整体死亡负担的贡献最大.
- 调查结果强调,挪威需要加强公共卫生政策,以应对与温度相关的健康风险.
- 有证据表明,寒冷天气对死亡率有很大影响,需要有针对性的干预措施.
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