基于SD-STAMP-DEMATEL的煤矿岩石爆炸事故的机制和早期预警
Junwei Shi1, Shiqi Wang1, Jianli Shao1
1College of Management Science and Engineering, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, 264000, China.
Heliyon
|March 5, 2024
概括
在更深的煤矿中,岩石破裂的灾难正在增加. 投资于基层安全控制提供了短期解决方案,而加强管理监督是长期预防这些复杂的采矿事故的关键.
科学领域:
- 采矿工程 采矿工程 采矿工程
- 安全科学安全科学 安全科学
- 系统工程 系统工程
背景情况:
- 煤矿正在挖掘更深,增加了严重岩石爆破灾害的风险.
- 岩石爆发是不可预测的,复杂的事件,对预防和控制构成重大挑战.
- 现有的安全措施不足以应对深度采矿业务中不断升级的风险.
研究的目的:
- 用系统方法识别和分析煤矿岩石爆破事故的因果因素.
- 量化评估导致事故的因素,并模拟岩石爆裂的动态过程.
- 提出有效的短期和长期控制策略,以减轻岩石爆裂风险.
主要方法:
- 系统理论事故模型和过程 (STAMP) 理论被应用来提取因果因素.
- 解释性结构建模 (ISM) 和决策试验和评估实验室 (DEMATEL) 方法用于定量分析.
- 系统动力学 (SD) 建模,包括因果循环和库存流动图,用于动态模拟和早期预警.
主要成果:
- 在政府,管理层,基层和物理层面分析了事故控制缺陷.
- 短期有效性表明,基层行动的安全投资增加了.
- 长期有效性强调了管理层加强监督的必要性.
结论:
- 加强安全责任体系和提高政府/管理效率至关重要.
- 提高紧急决策的及时性是有效的岩石爆破灾害管理所必需的.
- 动态模拟揭示了系统变量对岩石爆破事故的不同影响,为目标干预提供了信息.
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