风力轮机上升的闪电:从更大规模的气象学中进行风险评估
Isabell Stucke1,2, Deborah Morgenstern1,2, Gerhard Diendorfer3
1Institute of Statistics University of Innsbruck Innsbruck Austria.
Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR
|March 5, 2024
概括
上升式闪电 (UL) 对风力轮机构成重大威胁,特别是在寒冷的季节. 这项研究表明,许多UL事件未被雷电定位系统检测到,这突显了对可再生能源基础设施的低估风险.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 可再生能源工程是可再生能源的工程.
- 电气工程 电气工程 电气工程
背景情况:
- 上升式闪电 (UL) 是风力轮机的主要威胁,由于大电荷转移,会造成重大损害.
- 雷电定位系统 (LLS) 检测到的UL不到50%,在寒冷的季节UL占主导地位.
- 目前的风险评估主要关注LLS检测到的夏季闪电,低估了寒冷季节的UL风险.
研究的目的:
- 评估风力轮机中LLS可检测和LLS不可检测的上方闪电的风险.
- 通过直接测量来确定影响UL发生的气象驱动因素.
- 将风险评估模型扩展到更大的地理区域并验证其性能.
主要方法:
- 来自仪器塔的直接UL测量与使用随机森林的气象数据联系在一起.
- 开发的模型在塔数据上进行训练,然后应用于更广泛的地区 (德国中部和北部).
- 在风力轮机站点独立验证了LLS可检测的闪电模型.
主要成果:
- 确定了UL发生/缺失的气象驱动因素.
- 对LLS可检测UL的模型得到了验证,在风力轮机现场显示可靠的诊断.
- 基于寒冷季节事件的风险地图显示了高概率的区域与实际的UL闪光相吻合.
结论:
- 该研究提供了一种可信的方法来评估UL风险,包括以前未被发现的事件.
- 这些发现表明,由于UL,风力轮机的整体风险更高,受影响区域更大.
- 这项研究改善了对可再生能源基础设施闪电风险的理解和缓解.
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