使用模糊的认知地图在蝶结方法为球形储的动态风险评估:一个案例研究
Keyvan Sarebanzadeh1, Naser Hasheminejad2, Moslem Alimohammadlou3
1Student Research Committee, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Heliyon
|March 6, 2024
概括
这项研究使用HAZOP和Bow-Tie方法评估了液化石油气 (LPG) 油箱风险. 模糊的认知映射将火灾引起的破裂确定为最大的威胁,导致爆炸造成的潜在死亡.
科学领域:
- 化学工程是化学工程的重要组成部分.
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 过程安全 过程安全 过程安全
背景情况:
- 液化石油气 (LPG) 储存在重大安全风险.
- 动态风险评估对于理解复杂的故障场景至关重要.
- 现有的方法可能无法完全捕捉威胁和后果的相互依赖.
研究的目的:
- 在球形储中对液化天然气进行动态风险评估.
- 通过使用综合方法识别关键威胁,后果和障碍.
- 加强决策,以减轻液化天然气释放风险.
主要方法:
- 危险和可操作性 (HAZOP) 研究,以确定潜在的危险.
- 弓式分析,绘制液化天然气释放的原因和后果.
- 模糊认知映射 (FCM) 用于对关键因素的动态分析.
主要成果:
- 从球形坦克释放液化天然气被确定为最高风险事件.
- 火灾引起的管道/坦克断裂被确定为最有影响力的威胁 (最高输出程度).
- 由火灾和爆炸造成的死亡/伤害被确定为最受影响的后果 (最高输入程度).
结论:
- 在动态风险场景中,FCM有效地识别了关键节点及其关系.
- 调查结果支持对防止和最大限度地减少液化天然气释放的有效障碍的知情决策.
- 综合方法为液化天然气储安全管理提供了一个强大的框架.
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