澳大利亚的Tinderbox干旱:一个极端的自然事件,可能会因人类引起的气候变化而恶化
Anjana Devanand1,2, Georgina M Falster3,4, Zoe E Gillett1,2
1ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Science advances
|March 6, 2024
概括
澳大利亚东南地区经历了严重的Tinderbox干旱 (2017-2019) 与极端的降雨赤字. 气候变化加剧了这种干旱,但机器学习可以改善预测.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 澳大利亚东南部的Tinderbox干旱 (2017-2019) 在黑夏火灾之前.
- 它连续几年出现了严重的寒冷季雨量赤字 (-50%).
- 干旱条件异常极端,超过了自然的变化.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查Tinderbox干旱的特征和原因.
- 评估人为强迫因素在加剧干旱中的作用.
- 通过机器学习探索干旱的可预测性.
主要方法:
- 对降水不足和大气循环异常的分析.
- 评估温度,蒸汽压力缺口和陆地水的可用性.
- 应用包含多个预测器的机器学习模型.
主要成果:
- 一个异常的大气循环转移了水分,导致持续的降水缺口.
- 高温和蒸汽压力缺口加剧了水分缺口.
- 人类造成的强迫使降雨缺口增加了约18% (含不确定性).
结论:
- 盒干旱是由于异常大气循环的结合,并被人类引起的气候变化所放大.
- 机器学习通过整合各种预测因素,为改善干旱预测提供了有希望的途径.
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