在巴拉圭的气候变化下,未来的火灾烟雾PM2.5健康负担在巴拉圭的气候变化
Nicolas Borchers-Arriagada1, Paulina Schulz-Antipa2, Mariana Conte-Grand3
1Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia.
The Science of the total environment
|March 6, 2024
概括
由于气候变化,巴拉圭的野火活动和细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 污染预计将大幅增加. 由于大火造成的空气污染的增加,到2100年每年可能会导致数千人死亡.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 全球森林火灾和极端天气事件的增加与气候变化有关.
- 巴拉圭经历了每年大量的土地面积燃烧和高细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 度,超过了世卫组织的建议.
- 从历史上看,巴拉圭近40%的细空气颗粒物归因于火灾.
研究的目的:
- 根据各种气候变化情景,估计巴拉圭未来的野火活动和相关的PM2.5度.
- 量化到2100年因空气污染造成的与火灾有关的死亡率和经济成本的潜在增加.
主要方法:
- 利用随机森林算法来模拟未来的火灾活动和PM2.5水平.
- 分析了气候变化预测,以预测火灾相关空气污染的变化.
- 根据预计的PM2.5增加,估计的死亡率和经济影响.
主要成果:
- 由于全球变暖,预计到2100年火灾活动将增加120%.
- 预计到2100年,每年的火灾烟雾PM2.5将增加7.7微克/立方米.
- 预计到2100年,每年可能有3500人因火灾,烟雾和PM2.5而死亡,经济成本为5.6亿美元 (占GDP的2.6%).
结论:
- 预计气候变化将加剧巴拉圭的野火活动和PM2.5空气污染.
- 预计火灾烟雾的增加对公众健康和经济构成重大威胁.
- 迫切需要缓解和适应战略,以应对气候引起的野火和空气污染日益增加的风险.
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