美国海岸的消失城市
Leonard O Ohenhen1,2, Manoochehr Shirzaei3,4,5, Chandrakanta Ojha6
1Department of Geosciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA. ohleonard@vt.edu.
Nature
|March 6, 2024
概括
沿海土地沉降加剧了海平面上升, 威胁到到2050年美国的城市将面临严重的洪水. 忽视土地沉降导致低估洪水风险和城市规划不足的沿海适应.
科学领域:
- 地球和环境科学
- 地质学
- 城市规划
背景情况:
- 预计到2050年美国海岸线将上升0.25至0.3米.
- 沿海沉降是当前沿海管理和城市规划中代表性不足的一个因素.
- 这种海平面上升的影响可能会显著恶化,增加洪水和洪水的风险.
研究的目的:
- 到2050年在美国32个主要沿海城市量化潜在的水灾地区.
- 将高分辨率的垂直陆地运动和海拔数据与海平面上升预测相结合.
- 突出沿海沉降对城市人口和财产构成的威胁.
主要方法:
- 结合高分辨率的垂直陆地运动 (陆地高度变化) 和海拔数据集.
- 使用了2050年海平面上升预测.
- 在美国32个沿海城市量化潜在的洪水面积,人口和财产暴露.
主要成果:
- 即使有现有的海岸防御系统,到2050年,陆地面积的相对海平面上升将威胁到1,006至1,389平方公里.
- 估计有5万5千至27万3千人以及3万1千至17万1千个物业面临风险.
- 分析表明,忽视空间变量的土地沉降导致不准确的暴露预测.
结论:
- 没有考虑沿海沉降导致美国沿海城市的洪水风险低估.
- 适应海平面上升所带来的挑战规模目前在大多数美国沿海城市还没有得到充分的认识.
- 精确的城市规划和沿海管理需要将土地沉降数据纳入海平面上升影响评估.
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