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棉花花的气候区分和气候变化预测:一个CMIP6方法
Guilherme Botega Torsoni1, Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido2, Pedro Antonio Lorençone3
1Federal Institute of Mato Grosso Do Sul (IFMS), Navirai, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil.
International journal of biometeorology
|March 7, 2024
概括
气候变化威胁着耶尔巴子 (Ilex paraguariensis) 的生产. 未来的预测表明,气温上升和降雨量减少将减少适合种植的面积,主要影响巴西南部和乌拉圭.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 棉花花 (Ilex paraguariensis) 是一个具有文化意义的南美作物,具有营养和制药价值.
- 众多的专利突出了其制药潜力,强调了其经济重要性.
- 了解气候变化对叶柏叶的影响对于可持续的生产和分销至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据CMIP6气候变化预测,确定Ilex paraguariensis的最佳种植区.
- 评估气候变化对南美主要生产商yerba mate生产的影响.
- 为可持续的yerba mate种植提供适应和缓解策略的信息.
主要方法:
- 利用CMIP6模型预测和WorldClim数据用于当前和未来的气候参数.
- 分析了巴西 (北,东北,中西部,东南,南部),阿根廷,巴拉圭和乌拉圭的气候数据.
- 采用地理信息系统 (GIS) 和Kriging进行空间插值,考虑四个社会经济途径和不同的时间表 (2021-2100).
主要成果:
- 目前,分析面积的仅有12.25% (150万平方公里) 是有利于yerba mate种植的.
- 优势地区主要位于巴西南部和乌拉圭.
- 未来的气候场景预测有害的变化,包括温度升高和降雨减少,导致适合种植面积的下降.
结论:
- 气候变化对现有和潜在的yerba mate种植区构成重大威胁.
- 迫切需要采取适应和缓解策略,以确保yerba mate生产的未来可持续性.
- 有针对性的区域规划对于应对适合生长条件的预计下降至关重要.
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