可可的可持续性:可可膨胀-射击病毒共感染的情况
Folashade B Agusto1, Maria C A Leite2, Frank Owusu-Ansah3
1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America.
PloS one
|March 7, 2024
概括
巧克力发炎病毒病 (CSSVD) 模型准确地模拟了传播动态. 具有延迟和随机元件的模型最好地捕捉到可可中CSSVD流行病的缓慢,变化的性质.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 植物病理学 植物病理学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
背景情况:
- 可可发炎病毒病 (CSSVD) 在加纳造成重大经济损失,影响15-50%的收获.
- 这种疾病是由食可可植物的虫传播的.
- 轻微菌株交叉保护是加纳可可研究院 (CRIG) 调查的一种缓解策略.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证CSSVD动态和传播的数学模型.
- 为了比较决定性,延迟和随机的普通微分方程模型.
- 评估这些模型对于理解疾病流行病学的适用性.
主要方法:
- 利用简单的决定性,延迟和随机的普通微分方程模型.
- 使用CRIG.的经验数据估计的模型参数.
- 经验证的模型结果与现实世界疾病动态相对应.
主要成果:
- 模拟的结果与观察到的CSSVD动态有很大的相似之处.
- 包含延迟的模型提供了更好的匹配,反映了CSSVD流行病的缓慢进展.
- 随机模型由于显著的数据变化,产生了优异的结果.
结论:
- 数学模型,特别是那些具有延迟和随机元件的模型,是研究CSSVD的有效工具.
- 这些模型为可可病毒病的流行病学和传播提供了宝贵的见解.
- 基于模型的见解可以为管理可可生产中CSSVD的策略提供信息.
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