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模拟气候变化对南德克萨斯半干旱地区鹿类慢性浪费疾病的影响

Md Rafiul Islam¹, Ummugul Bulut², Teresa Patricia Feria-Arroyo³

¹Department of Mathematics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States.

Frontiers in epidemiology

|March 8, 2024

概括

气候变化可能会加剧南德克萨斯州鹿的慢性衰竭病 (CWD) 传播,这可能会阻碍管理工作. 建模表明,由于特有CWD和气候影响,鹿种群灭绝是可能的结果.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
流行病学流行病学
数学建模的数学建模

背景情况:

慢性衰竭疾病 (CWD) 是一种致命的病,影响北美山羊.
慢性疾病的传播受鹿类的社会互动,野生动物管理和气候驱动的环境承载能力的影响.
气候变化影响得德克萨斯州南部地区,这对野生动物猎猎至关重要.

研究的目的:

为了建模和研究气候变化对CWD传播的影响,德克萨斯州南部的鹿类.
分析气候变量如何影响疾病传播动态,携带能力和接触率.
在各种气候场景下评估收获策略在根除CWD方面的有效性.

主要方法:

开发了一种冲动微分方程系统,以模拟鹿类年龄和性别组之间的CWD传播.
承载能力和接触率是以气候依赖的变量为模型.
标准降水蒸发指数 (SPEI) 被用作气候指标,其模拟基于典型的气候变化场景.

主要成果:

预计气候变化将阻碍德克萨斯州南部的CWD管理和控制工作.
该模型表明,CWD可能会在该地区流行.
模拟表明,由于CWD和气候变化,德克萨斯州南部的鹿种群可能会灭绝.

结论:

气候变化对德克萨斯州南部的CWD管理构成重大威胁.
气候和疾病动态之间的相互作用可能导致严重的生态后果,包括人口减少.
迫切和适应性管理策略是必要的,以应对CWD在气候变化面前不断升级的威胁.

关键词:

德克萨斯州的南方地区.承载能力承载能力鹿类动物鹿类动物慢性消耗性疾病慢性消耗性疾病气候变化气候变化气候变化普里昂是什么意思?普里昂是什么意思?

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