预测佛罗里达州埃弗格莱德斯病毒的潜在传播风险,使用蚊子血液食识别
Kristin E Sloyer1, Narayani Barve2, Dongmin Kim1
1Department of Entomology & Nematology, Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Vero Beach, FL, United States.
Frontiers in epidemiology
|March 8, 2024
概括
通过分析载体与宿主相互作用,生态利基建模预测了佛罗里达州埃弗格莱德斯病毒 (EVEV) 传播风险. 这些发现突出了高风险地区,有助于对这种树冠病毒进行有针对性的监测.
科学领域:
- 植物病毒学和疾病生态学.
- 生态利基模型的建模.
- 载体传播疾病监测监测 载体传播疾病监测
背景情况:
- 由于宿主,载体和合适息地分布的重叠,造成了 arbovirus 传播的风险.
- 埃弗格莱德斯病毒 (EVEV) 是委内瑞拉马类脑炎病毒亚型,是佛罗里达州的特有病,由Culex cedecei蚊子在壁状动物之间传播.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个生态利基模型 (ENM),预测佛罗里达州适合EVEV传播的地区.
- 将载体-宿主相互作用与环境数据相结合,以加强传播风险评估.
主要方法:
- 生态利基建模使用从*Cx. *Cx. *Cx. *Cx. *Cx. *Cx. *Cx. *Cx. *Cx. *Cx. *Cx. *Cx. *Cx. *Cx. cedecei* 血液粉的分析.
- 纳入13个环境变量:生物气候数据 (温度,降水) 和土地覆盖数据 (NLCD 2019).
- 关键环境驱动因素的分析:最高气温,最低气温和最干燥的月份降水量;新兴的草原和木质湿地.
主要成果:
- 高适合 *Cx. 的高适合性. 在佛罗里达州西南部和沿着东北部海岸预测的cedecei*-动物相互作用.
- 在迈阿密-戴德和佛罗里达北部/泛汉德大部分地区确定了低适合性地区.
- 预测的分布与历史EVEV人类病例和野生动物抗体数据有很大重叠.
结论:
- 到目前为止,ENM提供了迄今为止最准确的EVEV传输的分布.
- 与单个物种模型相比,整合载体-宿主数据可以更好地推断潜在的传播区域.
- 这种方法适用于预测其他树木病毒和载体传播疾病的传播区域.
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