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全球健康安全指数:另一个看法
1World Development Group, Inc., Bethesda, MD, United States.
Frontiers in epidemiology
|March 8, 2024
概括
全球健康安全指数 (GHSI) 最初显示了与COVID-19死亡的反直觉联系,但后来与较低的死亡率相关联. 疫情准备成绩需要评估能力和预测政府行动.
科学领域:
- 全球卫生安全 全球卫生安全
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 全球卫生安全指数 (GHSI) 于2019年10月发布,以评估国家对大流行病的准备.
- 在GHSI发布后不久,COVID-19大流行爆发,促使人们对其有效性的早期评估.
- 最初的研究将更高的GHSI分数与人均COVID-19死亡率的增加相关联,这与预期相反.
研究的目的:
- 重新评估主要欧盟国家和英国GHSI得分与COVID-19结果之间的关系.
- 为了检查这种相关性在流行病期间随着时间的推移如何演变.
- 将GHSI的预测能力与GDP和卫生系统绩效等其他指标进行比较.
主要方法:
- 对GHSI得分与人均COVID-19死亡率,病例死亡率和过度死亡率的相关性分析.
- 在不同时间点进行的分析:大流行初期,2020年底,2021年7月,2021年底.
- 将GHSI与人均GDP和卫生系统绩效指数的相关性进行比较.
主要成果:
- 在大流行初期,GHSI得分与人均COVID-19死亡之间观察到正相关性 (r = 0.52,P < 0.05).
- 到2021年7月,相关性转移,显示较高的GHSI得分与较低的人均COVID-19死亡率 (r = -0.55,P < 0.05) 和病例死亡率 (r = -0.74,P < 0.01) 相联系.
- 总体卫生健康指数显示,与过度死亡率有很强的负相关性 (r = -0.69,P < 0.01),相当于人均国内生产总值 (r = -0.71,P < 0.01).
结论:
- 可能是过早地急于公布关于GHSI有效性的调查结果.
- 流行病准备指数的预测准确性取决于预测政府行动,这是一个挑战.
- GHSI与COVID-19结果的相关性演变,表明需要长期评估的复杂关系.
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