评估负二项-林德利模型用于事故热点识别:蒙特卡洛模拟分析的见解
Jhan Kevin Gil-Marin1, Mohammadali Shirazi1, John N Ivan2
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maine, Orono, ME, 04469, USA.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|March 8, 2024
概括
负二项-林德利 (NB-L) 模型显示出更好的特异性来识别危险的机地点,而负二项 (NB) 模型提供更高的灵敏度,特别是分散的数据.
科学领域:
- 交通安全 交通安全 交通安全
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 高速公路工程的工程师.
背景情况:
- 识别危险的碰撞地点对于有效的高速公路安全管理至关重要.
- 负二项式 (NB) 模型被广泛使用,但它有分散数据和多余的零的局限性.
- 负二项-林德利 (NB-L) 模型是解决一些NB限制的较新的替代方案.
研究的目的:
- 评估NB-L模型用于危险地点识别的性能.
- 将NB-L模型与热点识别中的传统NB模型进行比较.
- 使用模拟分析NB和NB-L模型之间的权衡.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种蒙特卡洛模拟协议,用于生成各种数据集.
- 实现了NB-L模型作为一个Full-Bayes层次模型.
- 在各种模拟场景中比较全贝叶斯NB和NB-L模型.
主要成果:
- 该NB-L模型在识别危险地点方面表现出卓越的特异性.
- NB模型具有更高的灵敏度,特别是对于高度分散的撞车数据.
- 在NB和NB-L模型之间存在一个关于热点识别性能的权衡.
结论:
- 当将非危险地点的错误分类降至最低是优先事项时,NB-L模型是有利的,特别是在预算限制下.
- NB模型仍然有效地最大限度地检测实际的危险地点.
- 在NB和NB-L之间做出选择取决于具体的公路安全管理目标和数据特征.
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