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十年间气候振荡在推动北极大气河流趋势中的作用
Weiming Ma1, Hailong Wang2, Gang Chen3
1Atmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA. weiming.ma@pnnl.gov.
Nature communications
|March 8, 2024
概括
观察到的北极大气河 (ARs) 显示出明显的趋势,大西洋的增加是太平洋的两倍. 这与太平洋十年间振荡 (IPO) 和大西洋多十年振荡 (AMO) 的变化有关.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 北极研究研究北极研究
背景情况:
- 大气河流 (ARs) 是北极极端天气的重要驱动因素,影响海冰和气候.
- 了解北极AR的多十年趋势至关重要,但仍然不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查控制北极大气河流观测到的多十年趋势的因素.
- 为了协调观察到的AR趋势和气候模拟之间的差异.
主要方法:
- 对多个观测数据源的分析.
- 使用气候模型实验.
- 调查跨十年太平洋振荡 (IPO) 和大西洋多十年振荡 (AMO) 阶段转移的影响.
主要成果:
- 观察到的北极AR频率在1981-2021年间在大西洋地区比太平洋地区增加了两倍.
- IPO (正向负) 和AMO (负向正) 的相位转移解释了区域AR趋势差异.
- 对IPO和AMO的计算将近期北极AR趋势的不确定性降低约24%.
结论:
- 观察到的北极AR趋势在区域上异质,受到主要气候振荡的影响.
- 纳入IPO和AMO动态改善了对北极变暖和海冰无条件的预测.
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