越来越多的亚洲西部喷气流的跨年变化源于大西洋
Nature communications
|March 9, 2024
概括
东亚喷气流显示了变化的增加,影响了极端天气. 这种变化与北大西洋有关.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候动力学 气候动力学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 夏季的欧亚西流正在减弱,变得波,与极端天气的增加有关.
- 由于区域和季节性复杂性,这些喷流变化的驱动因素受到争论.
研究的目的:
- 调查夏季东亚飞机 (EAJ) 的年间变化.
- 确定最近EAJ变异性变化的主要驱动因素及其对极端气候的影响.
主要方法:
- 分析自20世纪末以来东亚喷流的年间变化.
- 调查北大西洋波动 (斯堪的纳维亚模式) 与EAJ变化之间的联系.
- 在人为强迫下评估气候模型预测.
主要成果:
- 一个显著的增加 (大约. 自20世纪末以来,EAJ的年间变化率为140%.
- 北大西洋摇摆 (斯堪的纳维亚模式) 通过跨季度桥梁解释了81.1%的EAJ变化.
- 人为强迫的气候模型无法复制这些观察到的循环变化.
结论:
- 最近东亚喷气变化的增加主要是由非强制性的自然变化驱动的.
- 北大西洋斯堪的纳维亚模式作为一个关键的前体,使得五个月的预测EAJ影响.
- 观察到的EAJ变化和相关的极端天气可能无法完全被目前的气候模型所捕捉,这些气候模型专注于人为强迫.
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