揭示热带气旋在塑造当前物种分布中的作用
Anna Thonis1, Alyssa Stansfield2, H Resit Akçakaya1
1Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA.
Global change biology
|March 11, 2024
概括
热带气旋 (TCs) 显著改善了波多黎各的物种分布模型. 纳入TC数据可以提高预测,特别是对于面临极端天气影响的泛型物种.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化,热带气旋 (TC) 正在加剧,需要对其生态影响进行研究.
- 了解像TC这样的极端天气事件如何影响野生动物分布对于保护工作至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查TCs在塑造波多黎各10种Anolis物种当前分布中的作用.
- 评估TC数据在岛屿动物群的物种分布模型 (SDM) 中的附加值.
主要方法:
- 使用国家风中心对TC的数据开发了空间和时间明确的SDM.
- 创建了6个预测变量,代表1年窗口内的TC强度和频率.
- 利用随机森林来比较具有和没有TC变量的模型性能,以及土地覆盖,气候和地形数据.
主要成果:
- 包括TC变量显著改善了大多数Anolis物种的SDM性能.
- 一般物种在模型预测能力方面表现出最大的改善.
- 范围有限的物种表现出较小的改进,但他们的模型通常更具预测性.
结论:
- TC数据是SDM的宝贵补充,用于模拟易受极端天气影响的岛屿物种.
- 这种方法提高了我们在未来气候变化场景下预测物种分布的能力.
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