对于中断时间序列分析的细分回归中的系数解释
Yongzhe Wang1, Narissa J Nonzee1, Haonan Zhang2
1City Of Hope National Medical Center.
Research square
|March 11, 2024
概括
间断时间序列分析使用了带有两个参数化的细分回归. 虽然代表了相同的模型,但不同的系数解释可能导致对干预效应的误解.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
背景情况:
- 分段回归是中断时间序列 (ITS) 分析的标准方法.
- 对于细分回归,存在两个初级方程参数化.
- 这些参数化之间的不同系数解释可能会导致用户错误.
研究的目的:
- 在ITS分析中澄清两个细分回归参数化之间的系数解释差异.
- 用一个现实世界的政策例子来说明这些差异.
- 在ITS研究中准确解释干预效应的指导.
主要方法:
- 为两个常见的细分回归参数化得出分析结果.
- 将这些参数化应用于评估意大利吸烟监管政策的数据集.
- 获得并比较估计系数和标准误差.
主要成果:
- 这两种参数化都模拟了相同的底层细分回归.
- 由于参数化选择,直接干预效应的估计不同.
- 干预指标系数的解释极大地影响了直接效应计算.
结论:
- 尽管代表了相同的模型,但细分回归参数化产生了不同的系数解释.
- 研究人员必须仔细解释系数并计算干预效应,无论使用的参数化如何.
- 对参数化细微差别的认识对于准确的ITS分析至关重要.
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