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海面温度模式的影响减缓了全球变暖,并对气候敏感性的基于变暖的限制产生了偏见
Kyle C Armour1,2, Cristian Proistosescu3,4, Yue Dong5
1Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.
概括
观察到的全球变暖速度并不像以前认为的那样限制气候敏感度指标,如平衡气候敏感度 (ECS) 和短暂气候响应 (TCR). CMIP5/6模型无法复制观测到的变暖模式,偏差了灵敏度估计.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 大气物理学 大气物理学
背景情况:
- 自20世纪70年代以来观察到的全球变暖速度通常用于限制气候敏感度指标.
- 均衡气候敏感性 (ECS) 和暂时气候反应 (TCR) 是全球气候应对温室气体强化的关键指标.
研究的目的:
- 使用CMIP5/6模型调查观察到的变暖速度和气候敏感度指标之间的关系.
- 评估模型模拟的变暖模式对气候敏感性约束的影响.
- 重新评估基于变暖的ECS和TCR限制的有效性.
主要方法:
- 对气候变暖模式和气候敏感性的CMIP5/6模型输出的分析.
- 模型模拟的变暖与观察到的变暖模式的比较.
- 使用能量平衡模型和合气候模型模拟 (CESM1-CAM5) 改进了模式复制.
主要成果:
- 在CMIP5/6模型中,由于类似的内部变暖模式,显示了变暖和气候敏感性之间的关系,不一定反映现实.
- 在CMIP5/6模型中的历史模拟无法再现观察到的全球变暖模式.
- 当被观察到的模式驱动时,即使是高ECS模型也显示出低的有效气候灵敏度 (EffCS),与观察到的变暖速度一致.
- 对模型模式偏差的纠正显示,观察到的变暖与更广泛的ECS和TCR值相一致.
- 使用改进模式复制的模拟 (热层风的推动,南极融水) 证实了这些发现.
结论:
- 来自CMIP5/6模型的ECS和TCR的基于变暖的约束可能偏向低,因为模型无法模拟观察到的变暖模式.
- 观察到的全球变暖的独特模式在历史上减缓了全球平均变暖,其未来的演变引入了气候预测中的重大不确定性.
- 以前对气候敏感性的限制可能不可靠,需要根据更准确的模式模拟进行重新评估.
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