预测之前患有乳腺癌的女性的五年间隔第二次乳腺癌风险
Rebecca A Hubbard1, Yu-Ru Su2, Erin J A Bowles2
1Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Journal of the National Cancer Institute
|March 11, 2024
概括
一个新的风险模型准确地预测了经过阴性乳房造影后患第二种乳腺癌的可能性. 这个工具可以帮助个性化乳腺癌监测妇女有病史的疾病.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 放射学 放射学是一门学科.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 对于乳腺癌幸存者来说,每年进行一次乳房造影是标准的.
- 预测乳房扫描失败,如间隔癌症,可以个性化监视.
- 当前的风险模型可能无法完全捕捉个人风险概况.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证具有乳腺癌史的女性间隔第二乳腺癌风险预测模型.
- 估计间隔二次癌症的一年和五年的累积风险.
- 评估不同种族和种族群体的模型性能.
主要方法:
- 使用来自乳腺癌监测联盟 (1996-2019) 的数据.
- 雇佣最低绝对缩小和选择运营商 (LASSO) 处罚的回归.
- 通过交叉验证验证验证模型性能.
主要成果:
- 该模型表现出良好的校准 (预期/观察比=1.00) 和准确性 (AUC=0.64).
- 跨种族和族群的表现是一致的.
- 五年累积风险的中位数为1.20%;更年轻,更年期前/更年期前妇女和ER阴性初级妇女的风险更高.
结论:
- 开发的风险模型确定了患间隔第二乳腺癌的风险较高的女性.
- 该模型可以指导使用额外的监控成像模式.
- 需要进一步评估,以确认风险导向监测是否能改善早期检测并减少故障.
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