政策和市场力量推迟了美国沿海地区的房地产价格下跌
Dylan E McNamara1,2, Martin D Smith3,4, Zachary Williams1,5
1Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, UNC Wilmington, Wilmington, NC, 28403, USA.
Nature communications
|March 12, 2024
概括
尽管海平面上升 (SLR) 风险存在,但沿海财产价值仍在上升. 补贴暂时掩盖了SLR的影响,但消除它们可能会增加沿海 gentrification 和基于风险的定价.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 美国沿海社区面临海平面上升 (SLR) 和风暴带来的风险不断升级.
- 尽管存在这些风险,但沿海地区吸引了高收入居民,房地产价值继续上,造成了一个悖论.
研究的目的:
- 调查驱动沿海物业价值在不断增加的气候风险中的因素.
- 根据SLR,分析沿海房地产市场的长期演变.
- 探索政策反应及其对沿海社区和房地产市场的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发沿海房屋所有权模式 (C-HOM).
- 纳入物理沿海属性,经济价值和动态风险 (风暴,洪水).
- 分析居民所有者,租户和非居民投资者对房地产价值和政策选择的影响.
主要成果:
- 补贴 (海营养,税收优惠) 和稳定的外部房地产价值暂时减轻了SLR对沿海房地产价值的影响.
- 这些补贴只会延迟,而不是防止,随着洪水接近,最终的急剧下降.
- 取消补贴将更好地反映SLR风险,但可能加速沿海 gentrification.
结论:
- 政策决策涉及管理人口变化和使市场顺利适应气候风险之间的权衡.
- 目前的补贴创造了一个虚假的安全感,掩盖了沿海财产的真正财务风险.
- 转向反映风险的定价可能会导致更公平的,尽管可能具有破坏性的适应策略.
相关概念视频
The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic
7.2K
In order to make good decisions, we use our knowledge and our reasoning. Often, this knowledge and reasoning is sound and solid. However, sometimes, we are swayed by biases or by others manipulating a situation. For example, let’s say you and three friends wanted to rent a house and had a combined target budget of $1,600. The realtor shows you only very run-down houses for $1,600 and then shows you a very nice house for $2,000. Might you ask each person to pay more in rent to get the...
7.2K
Effect of Sea Water on Concrete
229
Concrete exposed to seawater can undergo degradation like the dissolution of ettringite and gypsum, increasing the material's porosity and decreasing its strength. In contrast, the crystallization of salts within the concrete's pores can cause expansion, particularly above the waterline where evaporation occurs. Nonetheless, this expansion only happens when seawater, enabled by the concrete's permeability, manages to infiltrate the structure.
Concrete in areas between tide marks,...
Concrete in areas between tide marks,...
229
Conservation of Declining Populations
9.6K
Conservation of declining population focuses on ways of detecting, diagnosing, and halting a population decline. The approach uses methods to prevent populations from going extinct.
9.6K
Shrinkage in Concrete
98
Shrinkage in concrete is primarily due to water loss from evaporation, hydration of cement, or carbonation, leading to a reduction in volume. The volumetric contraction results in volumetric strain in concrete. However, in practice, shrinkage is measured as linear strain, which is one-third of the volumetric strain.
When concrete is still in its plastic state, it can undergo a decrease in volume by about 1% of its absolute volume. This decrease is known as plastic shrinkage. It arises either...
When concrete is still in its plastic state, it can undergo a decrease in volume by about 1% of its absolute volume. This decrease is known as plastic shrinkage. It arises either...
98
Cognitive Dissonance
32.6K
Social psychologists have documented that feeling good about ourselves and maintaining positive self-esteem is a powerful motivator of human behavior (Tavris & Aronson, 2008). In the United States, members of the predominant culture typically think very highly of themselves and view themselves as good people who are above average on many desirable traits (Ehrlinger, Gilovich, & Ross, 2005). Often, our behavior, attitudes, and beliefs are affected when we experience a threat to our...
32.6K
Effects of Creep
141
Creep in concrete, the gradual deformation under prolonged stress, significantly impacts the integrity of structures. For reinforced concrete beams, it can be a vital design consideration, as it increases deflection, sometimes necessitating additional design measures. In columns, especially slender ones under eccentric loads, creep can cause buckling, compromising their stability. However, creep can be beneficial in indeterminate structures by mitigating stresses that arise from shrinkage,...
141


