在气候变化中的全球多重危险风险评估
Zélie Stalhandske1,2, Carmen B Steinmann3,4, Simona Meiler3,4
1Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland. zelie.stalhandske@usys.ethz.ch.
Scientific reports
|March 12, 2024
概括
本研究引入了评估多重危险风险的全球框架,考虑到气候变化对洪水和气旋的影响. 它揭示了,对共享驱动和恢复的核算显著改变了对人员和资产的风险估计.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 环境风险评估环境风险评估
- 地质科学 地质科学
背景情况:
- 自然灾害在全球范围内存在重大风险,需要准确量化适应和保险.
- 传统的风险评估往往忽略了多种危险的相互作用,导致实际风险的潜在低估或高估.
研究的目的:
- 开发和呈现一个全球一致的框架来建模多危险风险.
- 将危险,风险,漏洞和恢复假设纳入统一的风险评估.
- 用河流洪水和热带气旋在气候变化的情况下来说明框架的应用.
主要方法:
- 通过相同的气候模型实现来实现物理一致性的单一危险模型.
- 制定了一个考虑危险,暴露,脆弱性和恢复的框架.
- 在开源的CLIMADA平台中实现了框架.
主要成果:
- 整合共同的物理驱动因素和恢复过程显著改变了多重危险风险评估.
- 该框架成功地模拟了河流洪水和热带气旋对全球人员和资产的综合影响.
- 证明了框架的可扩展性超过两种危险和多种恢复场景的整合.
结论:
- 与传统方法相比,开发的框架为多重危险风险管理提供了更全面的方法.
- 这种方法为气候相关风险提供了一致的全球视角.
- 克利马达平台可以灵活地应用于各种危险和暴露,以改进风险评估.
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