在中国急性乙型肝炎病毒感染的时间趋势分析,1990-2019年
Ying Han1, Yuansheng Li1, Shuyuan Wang1
1Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, P. R. China.
Epidemiology and infection
|March 12, 2024
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
背景情况:
- 中国在实现世界卫生组织的95%降低乙型肝炎病毒 (HBV) 感染的目标方面面临重大障碍.
- 该研究解决了对中国HBV趋势的最新流行病学数据的急需问题.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2019年,分析中国急性乙型肝炎病毒 (AHBV) 感染的时间趋势.
- 预测未来的AHBV感染率,并评估实现世卫组织目标的可能性.
- 为了确定年龄,时期和出生队列对AHBV感染风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用2019年全球疾病负担 (GBD) 数据进行全面分析.
- 雇员加入点回归模型来研究发病率趋势.
- 应用年龄周期队列 (APC) 和贝叶斯年龄周期队列 (BAPC) 模型用于风险因素分析和未来预测.
主要成果:
- 在1990年至2019年期间,AHBV感染的原始和年龄标准化发病率下降,在20岁以下的个人中显著下降.
- APC建模表明复杂的年龄,周期和队列效应影响感染风险.
- 预测表明AHBV病例将在2030年继续下降,但世卫组织的目标不太可能实现.
结论:
- 虽然中国的HBV发病率正在下降,但这一速度不足以实现2030年世界卫生组织的消除目标.
- 调查结果强调了需要持续,并可能加强的公共卫生干预措施,以控制乙型肝炎.
- 该研究提供了关键数据,以指导中国未来的乙型肝炎预防和控制战略.
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