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一个综合的现象学和气候适应性模型,以石灰挖掘机

Brittany S Barker^1,2, Leonard Coop^1,2, Jian J Duan³

¹Oregon Integrated Pest Management Center, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States.

Frontiers in insect science

|March 12, 2024

概括

一个新的模型预测了灰 (EAB) 现象学和气候适应性,有助于对这种入侵性害虫的管理. 该模型准确地估计了EAB的存在和出现时间,支持监视和控制工作.

科学领域:

生态学和入侵物种管理
农业昆虫学农业昆虫学
气候建模和空间分析

背景情况:

灰 (EAB), *Agrilus planipennis*,是一个重要的侵入性害虫,在北美和欧洲威胁着灰 (* Fraxinus *) 种类.
有效的管理策略需要准确预测EAB的发生和生命周期时间 (表态).
现有的决策支持工具需要加强,以预测EAB的空间和时间动态.

研究的目的:

开发和呈现EAB现象学和气候适应性的空间化模型.
将这个模型集成到开源的Degree-Days,风险和现象事件映射 (DDRP) 平台中.
为检测,监测和管理EAB提供决策支持工具.

主要方法:

开发了一个空间化的模型,预测EAB表态和气候适应性.
模型评估利用来自中国,北美和欧洲的存在记录以及来自美国的现象学数据.
产生了现象事件地图,并分析了20年来EAB现象和分布的趋势.

主要成果:

该模型表现出高准确度,正确估计了超过99%的记录的存在.
预测的成人现象事件日期与观察到的日期密切相对应 (平均绝对误差~7天).
气候适应性在北美和欧洲普遍很高,尽管极端天气和变暖可能会影响某些地区.

结论:

开发的模型提供了一个强大的工具,用于预测EAB的现象学和气候适应性.
几乎实时的预测可用于美国,以支持监控和管理.
预测成人的出现和蛋的预测对于及时的农药应用和生物控制引入至关重要.

关键词:

亚格里卢斯·普兰尼尼斯 (Agrilus planipennis) 是一个植物.弗拉克辛乌斯 (Fraxinus) 是一个神奇的动物.预测预测预测预测侵入性物种是一种入侵性物种.管理的管理管理的管理.监控监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督热应力导致的热应力.

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