犯罪的位置离散选择模型:警察弹性和最佳部署
Douglas Newball-Ramírez1, Álvaro J Riascos Villegas1,2, Andrés Hoyos2
1Quantil, Bogotá, Colombia.
PloS one
|March 12, 2024
概括
警方的存在显著减少了哥伦比亚波哥大的犯罪. 最佳的部署策略可以在没有额外资源的情况下将暴力犯罪减少7%以上.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 城市研究 城市研究
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 普遍认为警察的存在可以阻止犯罪,但在拉丁美洲城市的证据是不确定的.
- 这项研究探讨了警察存在与犯罪事件之间的因果关系.
研究的目的:
- 确定警察存在对哥伦比亚波哥大犯罪的因果关系.
- 评估不同警察巡逻策略的有效性.
- 为了证明警察资源部署的潜在效率增长.
主要方法:
- 利用来自波哥大随机控制的警察干预的大数据集.
- 使用了工具变量方法和条件逻辑离散选择模型.
- 估计犯罪弹性和交叉弹性,以分析警察影响和溢出效应.
主要成果:
- 警察存在显示出显著的负弹性:暴力犯罪为-0.26,财产犯罪为-0.38,总犯罪为-0.38.
- 虽然直接的交叉弹性接近于零,但犯罪溢出效应显著.
- 一个最佳的警察分配模型预测暴力犯罪减少了7.09%,财产犯罪减少了8.48%,总犯罪减少了5.15%.
结论:
- 警方的存在在波哥大有明显的减少犯罪的影响.
- 通过数据驱动的策略优化警察部署可以提高效率并减少犯罪,而无需增加资源.
- 这些发现支持使用预测模型来有效地分配城市警察的资源.
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