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关键成功指数 (CSI) 与流行程度的依赖性
Gashirai K Mbizvo1,2,3, Andrew J Larner3
1Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Institute of Systems, Molecular and Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Biosciences Building, Crown Street, Liverpool L69 7BE, UK.
临床成功指数 (CSI) 随疾病患病率而变化,这影响了其在临床准确性研究中的概括性. 它的最大值取决于计算方法和数据集.
科学领域:
- 气象学 天气学
- 临床流行病学临床流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 关键成功指数 (CSI) 是一种天气预报验证指标.
- 在临床环境中,CSI越来越多地被用作统一的结果衡量标准.
- 由于潜在的患病率依赖性,人们对CSI的概括性存在担忧.
研究的目的:
- 调查关键成功指数 (CSI) 和疾病流行率 (P) 之间的关系.
- 为了确定CSI值是否可以在不同流行率的研究中进行概括.
- 检查不同的计算方法如何影响CSI对流行率的依赖.
主要方法:
- 使用了以前发表的认知查仪器数据集.
- 采用了三种不同的方法来分析CSI变化在一系列的流行.
- 应用贝叶斯公式和直接方程,将CSI与灵敏度 (Sens),正预测值 (PPV),流行率 (P) 和测试值 (Q) 相关联.
主要成果:
- 证实CSI值与疾病患病率有显著差异.
- 证明了CSI对患病率的依赖性质根据计算方法不同.
- 贝叶斯对Sens和PPV的重新调整导致了形曲线,表明在特定流行率下潜在的最大CSI.
结论:
- 由于它依赖于疾病患病率,CSI不能被普遍推广.
- 计算方法会影响CSI随着流行程度的变化.
- 最大CSI的最佳患病率可能是特定于数据集的,这凸显了临床准确性研究中需要仔细解释的需要.
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