根据可解释的机器模型预测中国T2DM人口中亚临床动脉样硬化风险
Ximisinuer Tusongtuoheti1,2, Yimeng Shu1,2, Guoqing Huang1,2
1Department of Endocrinology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo University, Ningbo, China.
Frontiers in endocrinology
|March 13, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了机器学习模型,以预测2型糖尿病 (T2DM) 患者的亚临床动脉样硬化 (SCAS) 风险. 随机森林模型显示出良好的预测价值,识别了早期预防心血管疾病的关键风险因素.
科学领域:
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 内分泌学 在内分泌学.
背景情况:
- 心血管疾病 (CVD) 是一个主要的全球健康问题.
- 亚临床动脉样硬化 (SCAS) 是心血管疾病的早期指标,对于及时干预至关重要.
- 2型糖尿病患者 (T2DM) 患SCAS和随后的心血管疾病事件的风险增加.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证可解释的机器学习模型,用于预测T2DM患者的SCAS风险.
- 在这个人群中确定与SCAS相关的关键临床变量.
- 促进T2DM中心血管并发症的早期检测和预防策略.
主要方法:
- 利用了3084名T2DM个体 (2018-2022) 的数据.
- 使用LASSO和RF-RFE进行特征选择.
- 使用十倍交叉验证和AUC构建和评估多个机器学习模型 (LDA,LR,NB,RF,SVM,XGBoost).
- 应用SHAP用于模型可解释性.
主要成果:
- 在研究队列中,SCAS患病率为38.46%.
- 确定了14个独立的风险因素,并选了9个模型构建的预测因素.
- 随机森林模型实现了最高的预测性能,AUC为0.729 (培训) 和0.715 (验证).
- 关键预测因素包括年龄,专蛋白,总蛋白,总胆固醇和血清肌素.
结论:
- 可解释的机器学习模型可以有效地预测中国T2DM患者的SCAS风险.
- 早期识别高风险个体可以实现有针对性的预防和干预.
- 这些模型可以有助于减少T2DM人口中不良心血管事件.
相关概念视频
Diabetes Mellitus: Type 2 and Gestational
Type 2 diabetes, characterized by insulin resistance, arises when the insulin receptors on cells lose responsiveness to insulin, diminishing the cell's capacity to take up glucose, resulting in elevated blood glucose levels. To receive a diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes, a series of blood glucose tests are necessary to assess whether the blood glucose falls within normal parameters. If the result is out of the normal range, a patient may be diagnosed as prediabetic or diabetic, depending on the...
Diabetes: Symptoms, Diagnosis, and Complications
For most patients, experiencing several weeks of polyuria, polydipsia, fatigue, and significant weight loss may indicate the presence of diabetes. Furthermore, adults displaying the phenotypic appearance of type 2 diabetes (particularly those who are obese and not initially insulin-requiring), may have islet cell autoantibodies, suggesting autoimmune-mediated β cell destruction and a diagnosis of latent autoimmune diabetes of adults (LADA). The categorization of glucose homeostasis is based on...
Coronary Artery Disease I: Introduction
Coronary Artery Disease (CAD): An Overview with Scientific InsightsCoronary Artery Disease (CAD), often referred to as C-A-D, is a prevalent blood vessel disorder classified under the broader category of atherosclerosis. Atherosclerosis is a pathological process characterized by the hardening and narrowing of arteries due to the accumulation of atherosclerotic plaques. These plaques are composed of cholesterol, fatty substances, inflammatory cells, calcium, and fibrin, reducing blood flow to...
Type II Diabetes I: Introduction
Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a chronic metabolic disorder characterized by insulin resistance, in which target tissues such as the liver, muscle, and adipose tissue respond poorly to insulin. It is also associated with inadequate compensatory insulin secretion, where pancreatic β-cells fail to produce sufficient insulin. Together, these abnormalities lead to persistent hyperglycemia.EtiologyT2DM develops through a complex interaction of genetic predisposition and environmental or...
Type II Diabetes II: Pathophysiology
PathophysiologyType 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM ) is a chronic metabolic disorder characterized by insulin resistance and progressive pancreatic β-cell dysfunction, leading to impaired glucose homeostasis. It results from interactions among genetic predisposition, environmental factors, and metabolic stressors, such as overnutrition and a sedentary lifestyle.Insulin Resistance and Glucose DysregulationEarly T2DM involves insulin resistance in skeletal muscle, adipose tissue, and the liver.
Type II Diabetes Mellitus III: Clinical Manifestations and Diagnosis
Type 2 diabetes mellitus develops gradually and is often asymptomatic in early stages.Clinical ManifestationsWhen symptoms appear, they include fatigue, blurred vision, pruritus, delayed wound healing, and recurrent infections, particularly candidal infections. Peripheral neuropathy may present as numbness or tingling in the extremities. Classic hyperglycemia symptoms—polyuria, polydipsia, and polyphagia—are less common. Most patients are overweight and frequently have associated hypertension...


