人口峰值的正式人口统计学
Joshua R Goldstein1, Thomas Cassidy2
1Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Demography
|March 13, 2024
概括
人口增长将比以前认为的晚些时候达到顶峰. 纳入长寿和移民增加的模型预测,在达到替代水平的生育率和人口减少之间,会有35-40年的滞后.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 人口研究 人口研究
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 安斯利·科尔 (Ansley Coale) 的经典模型分析了与生育率下降的人口动态.
- 科尔的工作表明,在达到替代水平生育率后,出生率高峰和人口减少之间存在滞后.
研究的目的:
- 通过纳入现代人口趋势来扩展科尔的发现.
- 模拟增加寿命,净移民和减缓生育率下降对人口峰值时间的影响.
主要方法:
- 在安斯利·科尔 (Ansley Coale) 的基本人口统计模型的基础上.
- 开发包括延长寿命,净移民和修改生育率下降率在内的扩展模型.
- 基于当前的人口预测模拟人口轨迹.
主要成果:
- 扩展模型预测,在达到替代水平的生育率和随后的人口下降之间,差距约为35-40年.
- 这种预测的延迟比科尔最初的估计要长.
- 结果与联合国当前的人口预测一致.
结论:
- 诸如寿命延长和净移民等因素显著影响人口峰值的时间.
- 扩展模型提供了对未来人口动态的更细致的理解.
- 了解这些因素对于准确的人口预测至关重要.
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