成本效益的不确定性可能会影响中国煤电转型的决定
Xizhe Yan1, Dan Tong2, Yixuan Zheng3
1Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
Nature communications
|March 14, 2024
概括
在中国的政策实施中出现的障碍.
科学领域:
- 能源政策分析 能源政策分析
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 气候变化缓解减缓 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 煤电转型涉及复杂的技术,经济和环境因素.
- 中国的煤电逐步淘汰战略面临着实施的不确定性.
- 在政策中断的情况下评估成本效益对于有效过渡至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了探索由于政策实施障碍而导致的中国煤炭电力转型的成本效益不确定性.
- 分析与不同煤炭淘汰和新建战略相关的风险和机遇.
- 了解单位层面的差异和决策偏好如何影响过渡结果.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个单位级不确定性评估框架.
- 采用偏好分析来评估煤炭过渡决策.
- 在中国模拟了各种煤电逐步淘汰和新建战略.
主要成果:
- 政策实施的不确定性可能会推迟实现积极的净收益,可能会延迟六年.
- 并非所有逐步淘汰战略都能保证2018-2060年间的累积净收益.
- 由于单位层面的差异,决策偏好显著影响过渡战略的选择.
- 成本效益的不确定性可能导致错过了最佳战略选择的机会.
结论:
- 尽量减少政策实施障碍对于减轻风险和负面效益至关重要.
- 加强煤电逐步淘汰决策的实用性,需要仔细考虑实施的不确定性.
- 解决单位层面的异质性和决策偏好是成功煤炭转型的关键.
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