通过使用高分辨率区域气候模型,提高我们对加勒比海未来热带气旋强度的理解
Job C M Dullaart1,2, Hylke de Vries3, Nadia Bloemendaal4,3
1Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. job.dullaart@knmi.nl.
Scientific reports
|March 14, 2024
概括
像玛丽亚和多里安这样的热带气旋可能会在温暖的气候下产生更高的风暴潮. 未来风暴潮的增加是显著的,必须考虑沿海洪水风险评估.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 沿海工程 沿海工程
背景情况:
- 加勒比海沿海社区面临着热带气旋带来的重大风险,包括风暴潮驱动的洪水.
- 了解未来热带气旋的影响对于有效的沿海保护战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在未来更温暖的气候场景下 (2°C和3.4°C) 调查热带气旋玛丽亚和多里安在风暴潮高度的潜在变化.
- 在海平面上升的背景下,评估预计风暴潮增加的意义.
主要方法:
- 使用故事情节方法,使用高分辨率区域气候模型和伪全球变暖技术.
- 采用Delta量子位图来确定未来的风速和平均海平面压力变化.
- 强制使用具有历史和预测旋风数据的水力动力学模型来模拟风暴浪潮水平.
主要成果:
- 玛丽亚风的最大风暴潮高度可能增加0.31米.
- 风多利安的最大风暴潮高度可能增加到0.56米.
- 预计风暴潮的增加是相当大的,与本世纪末海平面上升相当.
结论:
- 未来的热带气旋可能会在气候变暖的情况下产生更高的风暴潮.
- 风暴潮增加对沿海洪水风险的影响在大规模评估中经常被低估.
- 适应策略必须考虑到海平面上升以外的强化风暴潮影响.
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