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全球供应链扩大未来极端热带风险的经济成本
Yida Sun1, Shupeng Zhu2,3, Daoping Wang4,5
1Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Nature
|March 14, 2024
概括
越来越多的全球热浪威胁着经济. 世纪中期的预测显示,由于健康影响,劳动生产率下降和供应链中断而造成的国内生产总值大幅下降,对发展中国家造成了不成比例的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境科学与经济学
- 气候变化影响评估
- 社会经济建模
背景情况:
- 全球热浪的频率和严重程度有所增加.
- 气候变化带来了重大的社会经济风险和成本.
- 迫切需要量化未来的热应激影响.
研究的目的:
- 估计中世纪热压力对社会经济的影响.
- 开发一个灾难足迹分析框架.
- 分析健康,劳动生产力和间接经济损失.
主要方法:
- 综合气候,流行病学和混合输出模型.
- 使用可计算的一般平衡全球贸易模型.
- 评估了医疗成本,劳动生产力损失和供应链中断.
主要成果:
- 预计到本世纪中叶全球年均GDP损失将呈指数级增长.
- 到2060年,经济损失将在全球GDP的0.6%至4.6%之间.
- 发展中国家,特别是非洲和东南亚, 面临不成比例的健康和劳动生产力损失.
- 像中国和美国这样的制造业国家面临着大量的供应链中断损失.
结论:
- 热应激对全球经济稳定构成越来越大的威胁.
- 对脆弱的发展中国家造成的不成比例影响需要有针对性的适应战略.
- 综合建模对于了解和减轻气候相关的经济风险至关重要.
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