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在2型糖尿病患者中预测模型和外周血管疾病的风险分析,使用机器学习和Shapley的附加解释
Lianhua Liu1, Bo Bi1, Li Cao1
1International School of Public Health and One Health, Hainan Medical University, Haikou, Hainan, China.
Frontiers in endocrinology
|March 14, 2024
概括
机器学习准确地预测了2型糖尿病患者的外周血管疾病 (PVD) 风险. 关键预测因素包括血红蛋白,年龄,总胆汁酸和脂蛋白.
科学领域:
- 计算医学和生物信息学.
- 人工智能在临床诊断中的应用.
背景情况:
- 周围血管疾病 (PVD) 是2型糖尿病 (T2DM) 的常见并发症.
- 早期发现和预测PVD风险对于T2DM患者的有效临床治疗至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证用于预测T2DM中PVD风险的机器学习 (ML) 模型.
- 在T2DM中使用ML和Shapley添加式解释 (SHAP) 识别PVD的显著风险因素.
主要方法:
- 追溯分析了4372名T2DM住院患者的电子病历.
- 使用递归特征消除 (RFE) 进行特征选择;使用合成少数超采样技术 (SMOTE) 进行数据集平衡.
- 六个ML算法 (DT,LR,RF,SVM,XGBoost,AdaBoost) 通过使用网格搜索和10倍交叉验证进行训练和优化.
主要成果:
- XGBoost模型表现出卓越的性能,其AUC为0.945.
- 通过RFE和SHAP识别的关键预测因素包括血红蛋白 (Hb),年龄,总胆汁酸 (TBA) 和脂蛋白 (LP-a).
- 最好的模型实现了高精度 (0.890),精度 (0.930),回忆 (0.927) 和F1得分 (0.928).
结论:
- 机器学习有效地预测T2DM患者的PVD风险.
- 开发的模型为医生提供了对关键风险因素的见解,有助于临床决策.
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