由于气候变化而导致的北克莱姆病的当前和未来负担
Marion Ripoche1, Alexandra Irace-Cima1, Ariane Adam-Poupart1
1Institut national de la santé publique du Québec, Montréal, QC.
概括
预计到2050年,北克的莱姆病病例将大幅增加,原因是环境变化有利于的传播. 这项研究估计了目前和未来的负担,以告知莱姆病预防的公共卫生战略.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 预计环境变化将增加*Ixodes scapularis*的地理范围,导致北克莱姆病的发病率更高.
- 了解莱姆病的当前和未来负担对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计北克莱姆病目前的流行病学,临床和经济负担.
- 预测到2050年在北克预计的莱姆病病例数量.
主要方法:
- 分析2015-2019年在北克报告的莱姆病病例,以描述人口,地理和临床特征.
- 基于人口和气候预测的三个发病率情景的开发,以预测未来的病例数量.
主要成果:
- 从2016年至2019年,报告了1473例莱姆病病例,主要是在埃斯特里和蒙特雷吉获得的,感染发生在北克各地.
- 病例的平均年龄为44岁,其中66%的病例在局部阶段被诊断出来. 初始护理费用平均为每名患者182加元.
- 预测显示,到2050年,超过95%的北克人口将居住在适合的气候环境中,北克的病例将增加1.3-14.5倍.
结论:
- 莱姆病的流行病学负担集中在北克南部,而临床和经济影响遍及全省.
- 对于北克地区来说,未来的预测对于调整和加强对莱姆病的公共卫生保护措施至关重要.
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