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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
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雪的市场:在当前和未来的气候条件下模拟冬季娱乐模式
Bryan Parthum1, Peter Christensen2
1U.S. EPA.
概括
气候变化影响冬季娱乐活动. 积雪量下降可能会使滑雪场游客减少40-60%,每年造成数十亿美元的损失. 这项研究模拟了对山区社区的经济影响.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 娱乐管理 娱乐管理
背景情况:
- 山区社区和雪迷们依靠冬季的积雪.
- 由于气候变化而改变的雪地条件对冬季旅游和娱乐构成风险.
研究的目的:
- 模拟短期房地产租对积雪变化的行为反应.
- 为了估计降低积雪对滑雪场参观和支付意愿的经济影响.
- 在气候变化情景下预测未来的访客趋势.
主要方法:
- 结合了1200万个短期房地产租交易与每日天气,积雪和降雪数据.
- 推导出市场特定的需求弹性,考虑替代效应.
- 结合了缩小规模的气候预测和访问模型.
主要成果:
- 预计与雪相关的游客数量将减少,从-40%到60%不等.
- 预计到本世纪末,为了避免积雪减少,预计每年有意愿支付123亿美元 (RCP4.5) 到205亿美元 (RCP8.5) 之间的费用.
- 访客减少几乎是之前估计的两倍.
结论:
- 气候变化严重威胁到依赖雪的旅游和娱乐经济.
- 降雪带来的经济损失很大,需要采取积极的适应战略.
- 未来的访问和经济影响需要采取紧急的气候行动.
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