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社区科学揭示了水禽的延迟秋季迁徙以及气候变化的时空效应

Barbara Frei¹, Amelia R Cox², Ana C Morales¹

¹Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

The Journal of animal ecology

|March 14, 2024

概括

气候变化显著改变了水鸟秋季迁徙的时间,影响了生态系统和狩猎业. 了解物种对温度和降水的特定反应对于保护工作至关重要.

科学领域:

生态与环境科学生态与环境科学
气候变化生物学气候变化生物学
鸟类生态学鸟类生态学

背景情况:

气候变化影响迁徙鸟类的移动,但秋季迁徙的影响比春季了解得更少.
水鸟迁徙的变化可能会产生级联的生态,社会经济和文化影响.
秋季迁徙模式在物种,地区和年份之间是可变的,需要详细的研究.

研究的目的:

调查北美东北部15种水鸟的秋季迁徙现象学的变化.
确定气候变量,特别是温度和降雨对水鸟迁徙时间的影响.
确定物种对气候变化对迁移模式的影响的具体反应.

主要方法:

利用了43年的社区科学数据,对15种水鸟沿着北美主要的飞道进行了分析.
开发了每个物种的空间和时间明确的等级通用化附加模型.
分析了最低温度和降水之间的相互作用,以评估气候对迁移现象学的影响.

主要成果:

气候,特别是最低温度和降水的相互作用,对大多数研究的水禽物种的迁徙现象学有重大影响.
各种物种表现出不同的反应:"气候迁徙者"对温度值做出反应,而"极端事件迁徙者"对温度降雨相互作用做出反应.
在生态和经济上重要的水禽物种中,秋季迁徙现象学的显著变化已经明显.

结论:

由于气候变化,水鸟的秋季迁徙现象学正在明显变化,有可能恶化.
如果不处理这些变化,可能会导致管理,监管和调查不匹配,对狩猎行业产生负面影响.
该研究强调了对气候对野生动物迁徙影响的物种特异性时空分析的必要性,并采用可适应的预测方法.

关键词:

鸟类的迁徙鸟类的迁徙气候变化气候变化气候变化在秋天,秋天,秋天下降.层次化的通用化添加模型.时间空间分析.

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