对水环境处理PPP项目进行风险评估和分类预测
Ruijia Yang1, Jingchun Feng2, Jiansong Tang3
1Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
概括
本研究介绍了水处理公私伙伴关系 (PPP) 项目的高级风险分类模型. 该模型通过准确预测复杂的项目风险来增强风险管理.
科学领域:
- 环境工程 环境工程
- 公共政策 公共政策
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 处理水的公私伙伴关系 (PPP) 项目对于可持续的水资源管理至关重要.
- 这些项目面临着传统方法难以解决的复杂风险.
- 有效的风险管理对于水处理PPP的成功至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为水处理PPP项目开发先进的风险分类预测模型.
- 加强这些复杂项目的风险管理能力.
- 提高水处理基础设施风险评估的准确性.
主要方法:
- 使用集体学习框架,并使用堆叠和加权投票机制.
- 评估的关键风险领域:自然/生态环境,社会经济因素和工程实体.
- 使用Jiujiang市水环境系统项目第一阶段数据验证模型.
主要成果:
- 与标准机器学习模型相比,拟议的模型显示出更高的预测准确性.
- 在自然,社会经济和工程领域成功分类风险.
- 该模型的性能在现实世界的项目上得到了严格的验证.
结论:
- 开发的模型代表了水处理PPP风险分类的重大进步.
- 为提升项目风险管理策略提供了一种强大的工具.
- 帮助政府制定更有效的水利基础设施风险管理方法.
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