在澳大利亚足球联赛中交易选秀时复合捐赠效应
Jemuel Chandrakumaran1, Paul Larkin1,2, Sam McIntosh1,3
1Institute for Health and Sport (IHES), Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia.
PloS one
|March 14, 2024
概括
捐赠效应导致球队高估他们拥有的选秀选项. 交易选秀放大了这种偏见,使得用交易选秀选秀的球员在球队中停留时间更长,无论他们的表现如何.
科学领域:
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 运动分析 运动分析
- 组织心理学 组织心理学
背景情况:
- 赋予效应描述了一种偏见,即所有者比非所有者更重视财产.
- 在体育运动中,这种效应可能会影响球员的留守,早期的选秀往往不顾实用性而保留.
研究的目的:
- 调查当选秀被交易时,捐赠效应是否会加剧.
- 量化选择交易对澳大利亚足球联盟 (AFL) 球员保留的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用比例风险模型来分析职业寿命.
- 在2003年至2016年期间,从AFL招募的考核人员.
- 将选货贸易数据的草稿纳入模型.
主要成果:
- 一个选秀选秀的每次交易都会使选手的退出率略有降低,为0.269.9的日志正常率.
- 这种效应在原来的起草团队的球员中仍然存在.
- 复合溢价和转移价值的参考点被确定为促成因素.
结论:
- 选秀交易放大了球员保留的赋予效应.
- 球队表现出更强的偏见,以保持通过更重的交易选择获得的球员.
- 了解这种偏见对于最佳的团队管理和球员评估至关重要.
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