网络搜索量作为近乎实时的补充监测工具在意大利的传播脑炎 (TBE)
Alexander Domnich1, Allegra Ferrari2, Matilde Ogliastro2
1Hygiene Unit, San Martino Policlinico Hospital - IRCCS for Oncology and Neurosciences, Genoa, Italy.
Ticks and tick-borne diseases
|March 14, 2024
概括
监测传播脑炎 (TBE) 的互联网搜索可以增强疾病监测. 谷歌趋势数据准确地预测了TBE峰值,改进了传统方法并有助于早期检测.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数字健康数字健康
背景情况:
- 互联网是健康信息的重要来源,搜索数据为传染病监测提供了潜力.
- 报告不足仍然是传染病监测系统的一个挑战.
- 性脑炎 (TBE) 监测可以从新型数据源中获益,以提高准确性和及时性.
研究的目的:
- 评估互联网搜索量对意大利传染性脑炎 (TBE) 监测的有用性.
- 评估谷歌趋势数据是否可以作为传统TBE监控方法的补充工具.
主要方法:
- 收集了意大利TBE相关搜索的每月谷歌趋势数据 (2017年1月至2022年9月).
- 采用季节性自回归集成移动平均 (SARIMA) 模型,有或没有谷歌趋势数据,用于时间序列分析.
- 与TBE病例通知相关的与咬有关的相关搜索术语.
主要成果:
- 咬的搜索术语与TBE病例的时间分布有很强的相关性 (0.81).
- 无论是TBE病例还是谷歌搜索,都主要在夏季达到峰值,在6年中4年出现一致的峰值.
- 与传统模型相比,纳入谷歌趋势数据的SARIMA模型显示预测错误较低,并准确预测高峰时间.
结论:
- 监控互联网搜索查询,特别是TBE,是意大利传统监控方法的一个有希望的,具有成本效益的补充.
- 谷歌趋势数据提供了及时性,可访问性和透明度,大大提高了预测准确性,减少了对TBE病例的低估.
- 整合数字数据源可以提高传染病公共卫生监测系统的稳定性和效率.
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