飞行距离对飞行员在持续飞行中做出决策的影响,在不断恶化的天气条件下继续飞行
1University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Journal of safety research
|March 14, 2024
概括
遇到恶劣天气的飞行员更有可能继续飞行,如果他们已经在飞行中投入了时间和精力. 这种趋势与更高的风险容忍度和飞行资格的提高有关.
科学领域:
- 航空安全航空安全
- 人类因素在飞行中
- 飞行员决策 - 飞行员决策
背景情况:
- 在恶劣天气中继续飞行是一般航空 (GA) 中的主要安全问题.
- 预先投入的时间和精力可能会导致航班后期发生的恶劣天气事故.
- 这些安全事故涉及认知和动机因素.
研究的目的:
- 实验性地调查事先承诺对通用航空飞行员决策的影响.
- 评估承诺对模拟视觉飞行规则 (VFR) 飞行中的冒险行为的影响.
- 了解投资时间如何影响在恶劣天气场景中飞行员的选择.
主要方法:
- 36名持飞行执照的飞行员参加了两个模拟飞行场景,包括天气恶化.
- 飞行员在遇到不利条件后决定继续或停止飞行.
- 决策后的措施包括风险感知,风险承担和情境意识评估.
主要成果:
- 在42%的模拟飞行中,视觉飞行规则 (VFR) 被侵犯.
- 之前的承诺 (远程飞行) 增加了继续进入恶劣天气的可能性,特别是在"冲"场景中.
- 继续飞行的飞行员表现出不同的风险感知,更高的风险容忍度,并且往往更有资格.
结论:
- 承受更高风险的意愿是决定在恶劣天气中继续飞行的关键因素.
- 这种风险承受能力可以通过在飞行中投入的时间来放大.
- 飞行员资格和经验也与增加的风险容忍度和延续偏差相关.
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