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在1.5°C和2°C以下的陆地碳去除措施中进行权衡

Xin Zhao¹, Bryan K Mignone², Marshall A Wise³

¹Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Ct, College Park, MD, USA. xin.zhao@pnnl.gov.

Nature communications

|March 15, 2024

概括

基于土地的碳去除策略,如植树和生物能源与碳捕获和储存 (BECCS),对政策敏感. 有效的土地减排政策可以加强碳排放,但可能会增加农业价格.

科学领域:

气候科学气候科学
环境政策环境政策
综合评估建模综合评估建模

背景情况:

陆地碳吸收,包括植树/再造林和碳捕获和储存 (BECCS) 的生物能源,在减缓气候变化的场景中显示出显著的变化.
了解这些移除的驱动因素对于有效的气候政策至关重要.

研究的目的:

通过使用综合评估模型,评估陆地碳吸收对陆地缓解政策的强度和范围的敏感性.
分析植树/再造林和BECCS部署在成本有效的缓解途径之间的相互作用.

主要方法:

利用全球变化分析模型 (GCAM),一个著名的综合评估模型,模拟各种政策场景.
分析了基于土地的缓解政策,植树/再造林,BECCS部署和农业价格之间的关系.

主要成果:

累积灌木/再造林和BECCS部署是反向相关的,但两者都有助于成本有效的缓解,而林业选择往往是早期部署的.
从长远来看,BECCS通常表现出更高的二氧化碳去除强度,而不是植树/重新植树.
摘除BECCS的强度取决于原料和技术,而灌木/再造林的强度则受土地政策选择的影响.

结论:

陆地碳排放消除策略对陆地减排政策的设计和实施非常敏感.
虽然植树/再造林和BECCS可以有效,但它们的部署和强度受到不同的因素的影响.
农业价格与陆地缓解的有效性之间存在积极的关系,这表明潜在的权衡.

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